Wednesday 22 July 2009

Choosing the right view

Let's talk about perspective :) The right and the wrong perspective. Perspective means a way of regarding situations, facts and judging their importance. The right perspective means a proper or accurate point of view. In science, the longer our perspective, and the more relevant information you incorporate, the better [more accurate] our conclusion. If our worldview is small and narrow, we are likely to believe that the sun revolves around the earth :) It is not good having only one set view and thinking that is the right view. We need to be flexible, but not too flexible.

We need to choose a perspective that is right for us. The smaller our time frame, the greater randomness of what we are observing. If we looking at price changes every minute, the degree of randomness is very high and our probability of anticipating the next correct price movement, or series of prices movements, is very low.

Let's use an analogy. Think of the currency market, these constantly fluctuating price and this never ending stream of information, as a highway. The losers standing on the shoulder of the highway, looking at the cars right in front of them with binoculars. What do they see? It's something moving fast, but what exactly is hard to say. What do they hear? A lot of noise. They are looking at a too short time frame.

Contrast that with the winners. They watch the highway from the top of hill. Because they are further away from the highway, the cars appear to be travelling slower, at a comfortable speed. They have no trouble distinguishing one from other. There is less noise. The winners can see the bottlenecks, and predict with greater accuracy whether this particular traffic jam is serious or not. Everything is in focus. Because they have distance and perspective, they are in a better position to make good trading decisions.

Ok, got the point?
The winners differ from the losers in that their perspective of the market is more suitable to their strategy and expectation.
My mentor said, to become a real trader, I must change my point of view. Look at the big picture, with broader perspective, see the trends not only in a short time frame. Well, sometimes it looks like against the [short term] trends :) Some people say I'm stupid :P, others say I'm nuts :)) I just wanna say... hah! may be they're right =))
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